A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
